Some of the highlights of this will be revealed when President Barack Obama unveils his first budget in a Prime Time television address. Other questions to be addressed in US environmental policy include whether the United States will hold itself to a renewable energy standard. Washington is also gearing up for December’s climate talks in Copenhagen.

Handling emissions in the United States will also be the centre of a debate on whether to deploy a cap and trade system or a direct tax on gasoline. Meanwhile CCS is making inroads as federal support jumps 70 percent to $8 billion to support demonstration plants. To further cut emissions, US auto giant Ford is vowing to produce plug-in electric cars by 2012. Yet the effects of climate change are already visible on US soil as tree deaths in the Western states are seen to have doubled over the last two to three decades as water resources become more scares.

The details of these high-temperature topics are:

Obama unveils his first budget
President Obama will, this week, unveil his first budget, which aims to cut the federal deficit in half by 2012, even as billions of dollars in spending are added to stimulate the economy - see Bellona Web’s recent story on the stimulus package.

According to administration officials, Obama will outline how he will carry out the programs that were central to his campaign, including overhauling the health-care system and energy policy. His budget will increase taxes on the wealthy and reduce spending on the war in Iraq to lower the budget deficit to $553 billion.  On February 24th, Obama will make a televised address to a joint session of Congress to outline his budget proposal, which will be unveiled on February 25th. Congress will then begin months of debate on the 2009/10 budget which formally begins on 1st October. Most of the savings will be made by raising taxes on Americans earning more than $250,000 a year and winding down the war in Iraq.

A renewable energy standard in the US?
The New York Times reports that advocates of renewable energy renewable energy got the stimulus package of their dreams, packed with tax credits, grants and loan programs intended to boost their industry. Now, renewable energy supporters are turning their attention to the next item on their wish list – a national renewable energy portfolio standard. Currently, 7 percent of US electricity is generated from renewable energy (including hydro-electric). President Obama has called for 10 percent by 2010 and 25 percent by 2025. Some sort of renewable standard could be part of a comprehensive energy bill that is likely to be introduced in Congress in the next few weeks. The prospect of a national US renewable standard has come up before in Congress but failed to pass. More than half of the 50 states have introduced renewable portfolio standards – Florida (a big prize!) may be next. If Congress passes such a measure, the renewable industry would then probably support the introduction of a cap-and-trade system and/or a carbon tax – more to come on those.

The road to Copenhagen
Encouraging the United States to re-engage in the international climate change negotiations is one of Bellona USA’s top priorities. It will be a daunting task. The main challenges will be first, to persuade emerging economies to make deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that they have long resisted; and second, to encourage the United States to adopt first ever limits on its own emissions. Last week, President Obama sent Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to China (her first overseas trip) to discuss global warming. Clinton was accompanied by the new US climate envoy Todd Stern. Many developing countries say they are waiting to see whether the United States adopts a binding carbon cap and what emissions cuts it will seek from major emerging economies. A spokesman for the Obama administration said that the US is “committed to getting a deal done in Copenhagen, and it obviously has to be a deal that the United States can join in. The domestic legislation is going to be enormously important in telling us how far we’re going to be able to go.”

In political terms, adopting climate targets that will satisfy other countries will entail persuading Democrats and Republicans from the middle of the United States – where fossil fuels, manufacturing and automobiles are pivotal to the economy – to approve legislation that will drive up energy prices, at least in the short term. This will be tough to do. A spokesman for the US Chamber of Commerce said, “I don’t think our political system can handle it. You just have too many senators in the middle.” The House Energy and Commerce Committee’s senior Republican, Joe Barton (R- Texas) said in an interview that, although he and others could support funding renewable energy and modernizing the electric grid, he saw dozens of moderate Democrats as allies in blocking mandatory limits on greenhouse gases. “This is not a good year to be moving that kind of bill because of the economy,” Barton said.

Together, the US and China account for about 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. China has just passed the United States as the world’s single biggest emitter. Perhaps a key question is whether the US and other developed nations are willing to help finance the low carbon transition for developing nations. Throughout the election campaign, and since, President Obama has said that the United States is “committed to confronting the threat posed by climate change.”

Legislation. Cap-and-trade or gasoline tax?
To get things done in Washington DC, the President and the Congress need to agree. So while President Obama is making all the right moves on climate change policy, the Congress must act to pass the necessary legislation. Unless they do, the Administration will arrive in Copenhagen with nothing in its pocket! So what’s Capitol Hill saying? Senator Barbara Boxer (Democrat-California), Chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee said that she will move a major global warming bill through her committee by December. The Leader of the Senate, Harry Reid (Democrat- Nevada) has said that he would try to bring a global warming bill to the floor of the Senate before the end of the summer. On the other side of Capitol Hill, the leader of the House, Nancy Pelosi (Democrat – California) has pledged a first ever floor vote on a climate bill in 2009. So the political pressure for action is increasing. Those supporting action on climate change, including Bellona, will be doing their best to support the passage of climate change legislation in 2009. But do not be surprised if it takes longer.

Senator Richard Lugar, the most senior Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recently wrote an article on all this in the Washington Post. His proposal was not cap-and-trade but to increase the federal gasoline tax which, he argued, was simpler than cap-and-trade. The gasoline tax (already 18 cents a gallon) would be a better way of persuading Americans to be more energy efficient, he said. It is transparent, easy to manage, and targeted at the sector that that burns most oil in the US. Expect to hear more about this debate in 2009.

CCS plans move forward
CCS activity received a boost from the US federal stimulus bill, signed into law last week by President Obama. Federal support for CCS projects in the US will increase by 70 percent to over $8 billion for demonstration and deployment of CCS projects. In addition, several US states including Illinois, Texas, Pennsylvania, North Dakota and Kansas, have introduced or passed CCS legislation in the past three months. Some US consulting firms expect that more than 10 US CCS power projects will be positioned to begin construction by 2013.

Ford to produce electric plug-in cars in 2012
In spite of the recession, Ford Motor Company announced this month that it will begin production of a plug-in-hybrid electric vehicle in 2012. Ford plans to produce 5000 in 2012. Ford will be competing with the Chevrolet Volt, General Motors’ vision for the future.
Car enthusiasts should have a look at youtube and hydrocarbonblog.

Tree deaths in Western US forests
And finally, a report on something that I have actually witnessed myself. According to a new study led by the US Geological Survey, the death rates of trees in Western US forests have doubled over the past 20-30 years. The reasons are mainly due to warmer temperatures and water scarcity linked to climate change. The climatic changes have led to greater stress from droughts and attacks by insect infestations. For more info, click here.

Jonathan Temple is the director of Bellona USA.