The CCS potential

How much will the global CO2 emissions be reduced if we get CCS up and running? In the study presented at this web site, Bellona set out to find the potential of CCS. We wanted to find the answer to how much it is possible to cut global CO2 emissions if we are able to build power plants and factories with CCS worldwide. The results of our analysis and calculations were astonishing. CCS can redcuce global CO2 emissions by as much as 33 percent by 2050.

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The results from the study were documented in a paper that was published in the International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control in 2007. The paper can be downloaded or you can read a shortened version of the paper below.
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Abstract

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce CO₂ emissions.

Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.

A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes of CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes of CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54 percent in the EU and 33 percent globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.

Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.

Introduction

According to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) increasing emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHG) will rise the average global temperature by 1.1 to 6.4 ^oC by the end of the 21^st century (IPCC, 2007a).  Climate models established by the IPCC indicate that dramatic climate effects will occur if the global average temperature increases by more than 2 ^oC.  To avoid such a high temperature increase, the IPCC has stated that global GHG emissions should be reduced by 50 to 80 percent by 2050 (IPCC, 2001).

If no action is taken, the average global temperature will increase by more than 2 ^oC.  The consequences will be melting polar ice caps, a sea level rise of up to one meter by 2100, an increased frequency of extreme climate events, permanent flooding of coastal cities, disruption of ecosystems, and extinction of species (IPCC, 2007b; Stern, 2006; Williams, 2002).

CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas, and anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are mainly a consequence of fossil fuels being the most important global energy sources.  Enhanced energy efficiency and increased renewable energy production will reduce CO₂ emissions, but according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy efficiency and renewable energy do not have the potential to reduce global CO₂ emissions as much as the IPCC target of 50 to 80 percent reduction by 2050 (IEA, 2006a).

CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is a technology with the potential to reduce GHG emissions while allowing fossil fuel use (IPCC, 2007c; MIT, 2007; Dooley, 2006; Edmonds, 2007; ZEP, 2006).  With CCS, the CO₂ arising from combustion of fossil fuel is captured, transported, and finally safely stored in an underground geological formation (IPCC, 2005).   

In 2006, the IEA published scenarios for energy demand and CO₂ emissions where CCS was addressed (IEA, 2006b).  In these scenarios the CCS potential is determined by the impact of a wide range of policies and measures aimed at overcoming barriers for adoption of new technologies for low GHG emissions, and IEA concludes that up to 7.5 billion ton CO₂ could be captured and stored annually on a global level in 2050.  This is consistent with a report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology stating that capture and storage of four to eight billion ton CO₂ annually on a global scale could enable appreciable enhanced coal use and significantly reduce CO₂ emissions (MIT, 2005).  Furthermore, a report from the Batelle Memorial Institute (Dooley, 2006) suggest that 100 billion ton CO₂ should be captured and stored globally by mid-century in a scenario to stabilize the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 550 ppm.

In most scenarios from the literature, the potential for CCS is limited because of significant economical and political barriers that can delay the deployment of new technologies.  The aim of the present work is therefore to calculate the full potential of CCS assuming that there are only minor political and economical barriers to wide implementation of CCS.  The present work thus assumes much stronger policies and economic incentives favouring implementation of CCS than the latest IEA scenarios.  Huge storage capacity exists worldwide (IPCC, 2005), and the CO₂ emission reduction potential of CCS is therefore limited by the CO₂ capture potential. The purpose of this paper is thus to estimate the global CO₂ capture potential. 

Method and assumptions

The potential for global CO₂ capture by 2050 calculated by Method A is based on the following assumptions:

Incentives and policies favouring increased energy efficiency and more renewable energy production must be part of the strategy to reduce GHG emissions.  CO₂ emission data according to the IEA Alternative Policy Scenario (IEA, 2006a) is therefore the starting point for calculation of the CO₂ capture potential. This gives data for 2005 to 2030.  Predicting energy demand beyond 2050 is difficult due to large uncertainties in how the global energy demand will develop.  However, The IEA ACT scenarios (IEA, 2006b) indicated that primary global energy demand in 2050 could be at the same level as the IEA Alternative Policy Scenario prediction for 2030. 

The European Union (EU) Technology Platform for Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants (ZEP) is aiming for power plants capable of capturing their CO₂ emissions by 2020 (ZEP, 2006).  Several CCS projects have been announced with commissioning in the period from 2009 to 2016 (ZEP, 2006).  For simplicity, it is therefore assumed in this work that CCS will start to contribute to CO₂ emission reductions in OECD countries in 2015.

Available technologies can capture 85 to 95 percent of the CO₂ processed in a capture plant (IPCC, 2005).  However, energy is required to capture, transport and inject CO₂, and CCS can therefore reduce emissions to the atmosphere by approximately 80 to 90 percent (IPCC, 2005).  As mentioned above, the ZEP is aiming at fossil fuelled power plants capable of capturing their CO₂ emissions by 2020 (ZEP, 2006). If this vision is realised, all fossil fuelled power plants installed in EU, and OECD countries, could be equipped with CCS technology in 2050 .  As a conservative approach, it is therefore assumed that 80 percent of CO₂ produced in the power production sector will be captured and stored in OECD countries by 2050.

The EU Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform aims to make hydrogen a major transport fuel for vehicles with a market share up to 50 percent in 2050 (HFP, 2005).  Hydrogen can be produced from fossil fuels IN LARGE PLANTS WITH CCS. It is thereforeassumed that 50 percent of the CO₂ produced in the transport sector is captured by 2050 in OECD countries.

CO₂ capture applies mainly to large stationary point sources, including fossil fuelled power plants and large industrial single point emission processes such as refineries, cement plants, chemical plants and steel mills.  According to IEA, global CO₂ emissions from the industry sector were 4.1 billion ton annually in 2002 (IEA, 2005).  IPCC has identified  2552 industrial CO₂ sources from refineries, cement production, iron and steel industry, and petrochemical plants which emit more than 0.1 million ton CO₂ annually each (IPCC, 2005, page 81).  The total CO₂ emissions from these sources are 2.8 billion ton CO₂ annually, which are more than half of the global CO₂ emissions from the industry sector in 2002.  It is therefore assumed that CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions from the industrial sector in OECD countries by 50 percent within 2050.

The initial CCS projects will be relatively expensive but as technology is further developed and optimized the CO₂ avoidance cost is expected to decrease.  It is therefore expected that the rate of implementing CCS projects will increase after the initial CCS projects have been running for some time.  The rate of introduction of CCS projects is therefore assumed to be higher in the period 2030 to 2050 than in the period from now and up to 2030.

The rich countries have to take a leading role in deploying strategies for reducing the CO₂ emissions.  CCS deployment is therefore assumed to develop faster in OECD countries than non‑OECD countries.  CO₂ capture in non-OECD countries is thus assumed to start in 2020.  It is further assumed that CO₂ capture in non-OECD countries will reach ¾ (i.e. 75 percent) of the level in OECD countries by 2050.

Assumed percentage CO2 capture from different sectors in the EU and OECD countries (left), and non-OECD countries (right)

Calculated CO2 capture potential

The total accumulated CO₂ capture and the reduction in CO₂ emissions that can be achieved by a wide implementation of CCS are presented in the table below.  The potential for accumulated CO₂ capture by 2050 is 236 billion ton CO₂ globally.  The CO₂ emission reductions from wide implementation of CCS are 33 percent globally and 54 percent in the EU in 2050 compared to emissions today.

Table A.  Potential for CO₂ capture and CO₂ emissions reduction.

Reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to CO2 emissions in 2007

The results in the table above show that the IPCC suggestion of more than 50 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 can not be met by only implementing CCS.  Large reductions in CO2 emissions can therefore best be achieved through a combination of (1) ensuring increased energy efficiency, (2) a transition of energy production to renewable energy sources, and (3) a wide implementation of CCS.

The calculated CO2 capture potential is also shown in the figures below.  Please note that the CO₂ emissions in these figures are calculated as the CO₂ production minus the CO₂ captured. The CO₂ production is the total volume of CO₂ coming out of the power plants and factories, i.e. the CO₂ volume that would have been emited to the atmosphere it CCS was not included.

The Global CCS potential

The CCS potential in non-OECD countries.

The CCS potential in OECD countries.

A second method for calculating the CO2 capture potential was also performed. This method is reported in the original paper that can be downloaded at the top of this web site. In this second method the CO₂ capture potential in the EU calculated by analyzing the demand for electrical power in the EU.  The CO₂ capture potential from the power production sector in the EU was calculated based on the EC JRC analysis (JRC, 2006).

These two methods for calculating the CO2 capture potential gave comparable results. However, the alternative method gave a bit higher CO2 capture potential than reported above. The fact that both methods provide comparable results strengthens the confidence in the calculated CO₂ capture potential.

Discussion

The most optimistic IEA scenario, i.e. the TECH Plus scenario, estimates that CCS can contribute to global CO₂ emission reduction in 2050 equal to 7.5 billion ton CO₂ annually.  This is far less than the CO₂ capture potential calculated in this study (15.7 billion ton CO₂ captured annually in 2050 worldwide.  The current study, therefore, presumes much stronger policies, economic incentives and technology development to reduce CO₂ emissions than accounted for by the IEA TECH Plus scenario.

According to a study from the Batelle Memorial Institute Edmonds, 2007) there are 8100 large CO₂ point sources globally that could adopt CCS technology.  The CO₂ emissions from these sources are more than 15 billion ton annually, and if CCS is introduced to all these sources with 85 percent CO₂ capture, close to 13 billion ton CO₂ could be captured and stored annually.  This is a rough estimate of the CO₂ capture potential from the power production and industry sectors which is higher than the calculated global CO₂ capture potential from the power production and industry sectors in 2050.  This is an indication that the calculated CO₂ potential can be realised if economic and political barriers are overcome.

The optimistic approach in the current study can give a 33 percent reduction in global CO₂ emissions by 2050.  This is not sufficient to reach the IPCC suggestion of more than 50 percent CO₂ emission reduction by 2050.  Therefore, stronger policies favouring energy efficiency, renewable energy and CCS are required than accounted in this study to avoid dramatic climate changes.

Parameters influencing the CCS potential

The potential for CO₂ capture strongly depends on policies implemented to set the world on a sustainable energy path.  Introducing policies to enhance energy efficiency will reduce the predicted growth in energy demand.  Increasing energy efficiency can therefore result in a lower global energy demand than estimated by the IEA scenarios.  The need for fossil fuel could then be lowered, leading to a lower CO₂ capture potential than predicted in this study. 

A CO₂ capture plant requires energy, and a fossil fuelled power plant with CO₂ capture will require 10 to 40 percent more fuel than a similar power plant without CO₂ capture (IPCC, 2005).  The extra energy required by a CO₂ capture plant is not accounted for.  In order to achieve significant global CO₂ emission reduction, stronger incentives favouring energy efficiency than accounted for in the baseline in this study are required.  The reduced energy demand from such increased energy efficiency is assumed to compensate for the extra energy needed for CO₂ capture plants.

A delay in introducing measures for mitigation of climate change will make it more costly and more difficult to achieve sufficient reduction in global CO₂ emissions (Stern, 2006; IPCC, 2007c).  CCS should therefore be deployed as fast and wide as possible.  New power plants should be built with CCS as soon as possible, and existing fossil fuelled power plants should be retrofitted with CCS as soon as possible. Therefore, incentives should be introduced to ensure that the rate of CCS implementation assumed is this study can be realised.

The success of introducing CCS as a strategy to reduce global CO₂ emissions depends on achieving wide implementation of CCS in non-OECD countries.  Achieving large global CO₂ emission reductions through CCS will therefore depend on a fast and wide implementation of CCS in China and other developing countries.  If CCS is deployed faster in non-OECD countries than assumed in this work, the CO₂ capture potential will increase.

Conclusion

The potential for CO₂ capture has been calculated.  In the EU, the accumulated CO₂ capture potential is 25 billion ton captured and stored by 2050.  The global potential is 236 billion ton CO₂ captured and stored by 2050.  This corresponds to 33 percent reduction in global CO₂ emissions in 2050 compared to emissions today.  CO₂ capture and storage as the only strategy for combating climate change is therefore not sufficient to reach the IPCC suggestion of 50 to 80 percent reduction in CO₂ emissions by mid-century.

The best strategy to reduce CO₂ emissions is therefore a combination of policies and technological development favouring: (1) increased energy efficiency, (2) a transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy as the major energy source, and (3) wide implementation of CO₂ capture and storage.

Global CO2 capture potential.

Reference

Reference to be Bellona study on the CCS potential:

A. Stangeland, A model for the CO₂ capture potential, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Volume 1, October 2007, pages 418-429. Download as PDF

Litterature for work cited in the Bellona paper:

Dooley, 2006.  Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. J. J. Dooley, R. T. Dahowski, C. L. Davidson, M. A. Wise, N. Gupta, S. H. Kim, E. L. Malone.  Report prepared by Batelle Memorial Institute, 2006.

Edmonds, 2007.  Global Energy Technology Strategy. J. A. Edmonds, M. A. Wise, J. J. Dooley, S. H. Kim, S. J. Smith, P. J. Runci, L. E. Clarke, E. L. Malone, G. M. Stokes.  Report prepared by Batelle Memorial Institute, 2007.

HFP, 2005.  The EU Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Platform (HFP). Strategic Research Agenda, 2005.  Published online at https://www.hfpeurope.org/hfp/keydocs.

IEA, 2005.  International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook 2004. OECD and International Energy Agency report, Paris, France, 2005.

IEA, 2006a.  International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2006.  OECD and International Energy Agency report, Paris, France, 2006.

IEA, 2006b.  International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Technology Perspectives 2006.  International Energy Agency report, Paris. France, 2006.

IPCC, 2000.  IPCC Special Report – Emission Scenarios.  Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000.

IPCC, 2001.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001.

IPCC, 2005.  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2005 

IPCC, 2007a.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

IPCC, 2007b.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland, April 2007. 

IPCC, 2007c.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland,  May 2007.

JRC, 2006.  European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). Preliminary presentation of Electrical Capacity in EU to 2030, May 2006.

MIT, 2007.  The Future of Coal.  Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.

The Norwegian Directorate for Nature Management, 2006.  http://english.dirnat.no/

Stern, 2006.  N. Stern, Stern Review: The economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, October 2006.

Williams, M. (ed), 2002.  Climate Change Information Kit. M. Wiliams (ed.). Published by UNEP and UNFCCC, 2002.

ZEP, 2006.  The EU Technology Platform for Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants (ZEP), Strategic Research Agenda, 2006. Published online at www.zero-emissionplatform.eu/website/library/index.html.