There are more than 8000 factories and power plants worldwide that each emits more than 100 000 ton CO2 yearly to the atmosphere. These factories and power plants could be equipped with CCS to eliminate their CO2 emissions. In fact that could happen as the cost of emitting CO2 is expected to increase, and because the cost of CCS will most likely be considerably reduced the next two decades.
When the CCS cost becomes less expensive than paying for CO2 emission allowances there will be a market for CCS technology. This could happen already by 2020, according to ZEP.
There are also other strong indications that there will be a future marked for CCS. In 2007 California endorsed a regulation for base load power production that includes an Emission Performance Standard (EPS) of 500 grams per kWh. This prohibits construction of traditional coal power plants without CCS because they would emit more than the EPS limit.
Introduction of EPS is discussed worldwide, and wherever it might be included in laws and regulations it will be an incentive for a CCS technology market.
Who will provide the CCS technology that thousands of factories and fossil fuelled power plants might need by 2030? It is hard to say. There are several companies investing in CCS technology development, but it is not possible to say who will be the future technology leaders.
At the moment it is hard to predict which CO2 capture technology that will be the most effective by 2030 or 2040. Companies have taken different strategic decisions on which technology to invest in. Some companies have plans to develop post combustion CO2 capture technology, while others put their efforts into developing oxyfuel or pre combustion CO2 capture technology.
Most likely there will be niches for several different technologies. Existing CO2 sources will have to install post combustion CO2 capture, while pre combustion or oxyfuel CO2 capture might turn out as the preferred option for new fossil fuelled power plants. By 2050 new novel technologies, like membranes and chemical looping, could be the most cost effective alternatives.
The bottom line is that the position as technology leader for is up for grab. But it is clear that those companies that invest in CCS technology development at an early stage will get a head start.
Capturing and storing CO2 will require ships or pipelines to transport the CO2. The 8000 CO2 sources mentioned above emits in total about 15 billion tons CO2 annually, and if a CO2 capture plant is mounted to each of these sources there must be built thousands of kilometers of pipelines. Pipeline manufacturers could expect some huge orders the next decades.
Ship transport of CO2 is an alternative to pipelines, and shipping companies that start to build ships that can transport CO2 will probably get a head start into a new market.
Injection and storage of CO2 will be carefully regulated and can only be performed by skilled professionals. Companies that already now start to invest in building knowledge and expertise in operating CO2 storage sites will face a huge market when billions of tons could be stored annually by 2030 or 2050.