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The IPCC report – who, what and why
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What is the IPCC?
The IPCC was established because human activities have started to interfere with natural systems like the global climate. Climate change is a complex and challenging issue, and policymakers therefore need an objective source of information concerning causes, consequences and responses to climate change.
The IPCC was founded by the UN’s Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988. The IPCC is open to all members of the UNEP and WMO, and meets once a year to discuss the structure, principles, procedures and work program of the IPCC.
The IPCC has organized its main tasks in three working groups: Working Group I assesses the physical science basis of the climate and climate change; Working Group II addresses the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change; and Working Group III assesses possible measures to mitigate climate change.
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| Temperature change: The red line indicates how scientists in UN's climate panel (IPCC) believe the median temperature has changed the last thousand years, measured in degrees Celsius higher or lower the temperature in 1990. The grey area shows how much higher or lower the scientists believe it could have been. One can see that the temperature is more uncertain the further back in history we go. For the years 1000-1860, scientists have tried to reconstruct the temperatures on the northern hemisphere by studying tree rings, corals, glacier samples and written sources. (there's not enough information about the temperature on the southern hemisphere before 1860). From 1860 - 2000 the temperature was measured with thermometers worldwide. The charts for 2000-2100 show how much scientists believe the climate can change in the future, depending on climate-gas emissions. |
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What is the Assessment Report?
The IPCC Assessment Report is the main item produced by the IPCC, released every fifth or sixth year. The first report was released in 1990 and since then, two more reports have been released, in 1995 and 2001, before this year’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).
The report is based on information contained in peer-review literature, which is literature reviewed by experts within a specific field of research. The research thoroughly reviewed to examine its foundations and conclusions and whether they are sound and solidly based, and convey trustworthy and relevant information. The IPCC report is based on the work of experts from all regions of the world.
In this year’s report the relevant literature has been reviewed by 2500 scientific experts. More than 800 authors have contributed to the report, and the writing of the final report has been lead by 450 authors from more than 130 countries. Six years work will eventually lead to three volumes and one final report.
Working Group I presented its volume in Paris in February, which concluded that humans, with above 90 percent certainty, are causing climate change. Working Group II, addressing the consequences of climate change, will launch its volume in Brussels in April. This volume will probably cause even more discussions and media coverage than the previous volume, as its content concerns direct consequences of climate change for humans and the environment. Working Group III will then present its volume on possible response options in Bangkok in May. The final report, based on the three volumes, will be released in Valencia in November.
Each volume and the final report include a so-called “Summary for Policymakers.” These summaries reflect state-of-the-art understanding of the subject matter and are written so that they are comprehensible to non-specialists.
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| The figure shows consequences of global warming. The upper part shows areas of temperature rise with a 5 – 95 percent probability, with a stabilization of climate-gas emissions between 400 and 750 ppm Co2 equivalents. The solid grey lines are based upon data from UN's climate panel (IPCC) and dotted lines are based upon eleven other studies. The horizontal lines correspond to 50 percent probability. The lower part of the diagram gives the consequences in different degrees of global warming. |
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Why is the report so important?
The report – and especially the summaries - are important channels for conveying facts and information from the scientific community to policymakers and the general public. By enlightening society about the scientific consensus and what scientists actually agree upon, general awareness among policymakers increases.
The report dissects and reflects on what issues are relevant and debateable and what possible options exist for alternative solutions to problems contributing to climate change. The report objectively presents consequences to be expected from the ongoing climate change and what will be the consequences of the coming climate change, and makes predictions about what will happen with and without possible responses to climate change.
The report gives the policymakers a tool that is useful for making and justifying their choices of policy. Because climate change is a global problem that cannot be handled solely by individual nations, global consensus and international agreements to cut greenhouse gas emissions are necessary.
The report and global warming
The IPCC report is important to the debate on global warming because it is a document created by scientists serving as representatives of every participating country’s scientific community. The report is therefore the most definitive standpoint on global warming.
One of the most important things that this report tells us is that we are now certain that the observed global warming is due to human activities. This is essential for the debate concerning global warming because it moves the focus from the scientific community to policymakers -who are then expected to take action on human activities that effect the global climate.
The IPCC’s ultimate agenda should perhaps be to make itself unnecessary. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to happen in this century.
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